TOUGH TIMES FOR CHOC LOVERS

Chocolate enthusiasts will need to exercise patience as they await more affordable bars. 

The global demand for cocoa has sparked a rush among African farmers to cultivate more trees, driven by a shortage that has drastically increased prices to $10,000 per ton. Severe weather conditions in West Africa have severely impacted cocoa harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the top two producers worldwide. 

While growers in these countries typically sell at fixed prices to the government, the recent market surge has allowed them to negotiate higher prices. This trend has incentivized farmers in Nigeria and Cameroon, where selling on the open market is permitted, to switch from less profitable cash crops to cocoa cultivation. 

However, given that it takes approximately three years for cocoa trees to yield fruit, this transition will not provide an immediate solution to the supply shortage. 

Consequently, consumers can expect chocolate prices to rise and portion sizes to shrink, with prices likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future. Projections from the International Cocoa Organization indicate a 4% decline in Nigeria's cocoa output and a mere 3% increase in Cameroon's crop. Ivory Coast and Ghana continue to face uncertainties due to weather conditions and cocoa-pod disease. 

Additionally, impending European Union regulations aimed at preventing deforestation may hinder expansion plans for chocolate manufacturers such as Ferrero and Nestlé. For Africa's cocoa-producing giants, navigating these challenges is crucial to securing profits, while consumers brace themselves for challenging times ahead.

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